Madison mid-year real estate review: actual vs predicted

Posted by Dan Miller, REALTOR on Monday, July 22nd, 2019 at 6:41am.

Late last year we released our predictions for the 2019 Madison real estate market. Here's our short review of how well those predictions have held up through the first half of the year. 

Madison WI 2019 Madison Real Estate Market Predictions

#1: Mortgage rates will rise above 5%

We, and just about everyone else, whiffed on this one. Rates for 30-year fixed rate loans have dropped to well below 4 percent. This graph from Freddie Mac shows how mortgage rates have trended over the last year. 

 Madison Mortgage Rates July 2019

#2: Home and condo prices will rise 2 to 3 percent

Madison home prices have increased by 4% through the first 6 months of the year. 

Madison WI home prices through June 2019 

Madison condo prices have increased by 2 percent. 

Madison WI condo prices through June 2019 

#3: Foreclosures will rise

Madison area foreclosures have actually decreased through the month of June and are at an 18-year low. 

 Madison WI foreclosures through June 2019

#4: Housing starts will plateau

Madison area housing starts have decreased from 2018 and are trending about 50 percent below the peak levels from 15 years ago. 

Madison WI housing starts through June 2019 

#5: Home and condo sales will decrease 5 to 10 percent

Madison home sales have decreased by 9% through the first 6 months of the year. 

Madison WI home sales through June 2019 

Condo sales have decreased by 10%. 

Madison WI condo sales through June 2019 

#6: Inventory will rise

Madison single family home listings are up 8% year-over-year but remain low when viewed from an historical perspective. 

Madison WI home supply July 2019 

Condo listings are up 11 percent. In the big picture, condo supply is still quite low for the buyer demand in our market. 

Madison WI Condo Active Listings July 2019

#7: Days on market will increase

The days on market for single family homes is basically even with last year. 

Madison WI Single Family Days on Market through June 2019 

The same goes for condos. 

Madison WI Condo days on market through June 2019 

#8: Expired listings will rise

A greater percentage of Madison single family home listings are expiring in 2019. 

Madison WI Listing Expiration Rate through June 2019 

The same goes for condos.  

Madison WI condo listing expiration rate through june 2019 

#9: Competing offers will decrease. 

The percentage of single family home competing offers has actually increased from 40 to 42 percent. The condo percentage has increased from 34 to 39 percent. 

#10: "Real estate consultants" will become more valuable in the marketplace 

We're finding this to be true in 2019, and we're grateful to be receiving so many referrals from our former clients who value our approach to real estate. We're working very hard to provide to great results, and it shows in our numbers. For example, here are our results for our Madison home and condo listings so far in 2019:

  • On average, our Madison home and condo listings are selling in just 12 days
  • 60 percent of our Madison listings have received competing offers
  • 80 percent of our Madison listings have sold for at or above the original list price
  • On average, our Madison listings are selling for 1.6% above the original list price
  • None of our Madison home and condo listings have expired without selling

For more market info and home-selling advice

Check out our comprehensive Madison home and condo market reports, which cover our local real estate market in detail without any spin or hype. Then visit our home-seller's blog, which offers plenty of tips on how to accomplish your goals in our always changing market. And as always, please feel free to contact us with your questions and concerns. We're always happy to talk real estate and offer you our honest opinions and advice. 

This article is published courtesy of:
Dan Miller, REALTOR
Mad City Dream Homes & RE/MAX Preferred
1619 Monroe Street #1, Madison, WI, 53711

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