Late last year we released our predictions for the 2019 Madison real estate market. Here's our short review of how well those predictions have held up through the first half of the year.
#1: Mortgage rates will rise above 5%
We, and just about everyone else, whiffed on this one. Rates for 30-year fixed rate loans have dropped to well below 4 percent. This graph from Freddie Mac shows how mortgage rates have trended over the last year.
#2: Home and condo prices will rise 2 to 3 percent
Madison home prices have increased by 4% through the first 6 months of the year.
Madison condo prices have increased by 2 percent.
#3: Foreclosures will rise
Madison area foreclosures have actually decreased through the month of June and are at an 18-year low.
#4: Housing starts will plateau
Madison area housing starts have decreased from 2018 and are trending about 50 percent below the peak levels from 15 years ago.
#5: Home and condo sales will decrease 5 to 10 percent
Madison home sales have decreased by 9% through the first 6 months of the year.
Condo sales have decreased by 10%.
#6: Inventory will rise
Madison single family home listings are up 8% year-over-year but remain low when viewed from an historical perspective.
Condo listings are up 11 percent. In the big picture, condo supply is still quite low for the buyer demand in our market.
#7: Days on market will increase
The days on market for single family homes is basically even with last year.
The same goes for condos.
#8: Expired listings will rise
A greater percentage of Madison single family home listings are expiring in 2019.
The same goes for condos.
#9: Competing offers will decrease.
The percentage of single family home competing offers has actually increased from 40 to 42 percent. The condo percentage has increased from 34 to 39 percent.
#10: "Real estate consultants" will become more valuable in the marketplace
We're finding this to be true in 2019, and we're grateful to be receiving so many referrals from our former clients who value our approach to real estate. We're working very hard to provide to great results, and it shows in our numbers. For example, here are our results for our Madison home and condo listings so far in 2019:
- On average, our Madison home and condo listings are selling in just 12 days
- 60 percent of our Madison listings have received competing offers
- 80 percent of our Madison listings have sold for at or above the original list price
- On average, our Madison listings are selling for 1.6% above the original list price
- None of our Madison home and condo listings have expired without selling
For more market info and home-selling advice
Check out our comprehensive Madison home and condo market reports, which cover our local real estate market in detail without any spin or hype. Then visit our home-seller's blog, which offers plenty of tips on how to accomplish your goals in our always changing market. And as always, please feel free to contact us with your questions and concerns. We're always happy to talk real estate and offer you our honest opinions and advice.
