Can you guess how many more people will be living in Dane County by the year 2050? 

A) 50,000?

B) 100,000?

C) 150,000?

D) 200,000?

If you answered "D", then your answer lines up with the projections of the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission. According to a recent study by the commission, our local population is projected to grow by more than 200,000 people between now and 2050. 

Dane County is already the fastest-growing region in the state, and our region's rapid rate of growth is just one of the reasons why we're predicting Madison area home and condo prices will remain strong in 2023 and beyond. Dane County will continue to be a great place to build wealth through real estate -- for those who have the means and make the

It's that time of year for our annual real estate predictions. Here are 7 key reasons why we see low inventory and strong prices for Madison and Dane County in 2023. 

On the demand side

Population growth

Dane county is already the fastest-growing region in the state, and according to the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission that trend will continue. The Commission projects our population will grow by more than 200,000 residents over the next 30 years. 

National reputation

For the second straight year, the city of Madison has been named by Livability as the #1 place to live in America. It's rankings like these that have put Madison on the map. And in a mobile culture like ours, where people can choose to live and work from just

Lately we've been hearing from more people in the Madison area who are hoping to buy a foreclosure as an "instant equity", "fix and flip", or a long-term "buy and hold" investment. But the reality is that there just aren't that many foreclosures out there, which the numbers from the Wisconsin Circuit Court database make abundantly clear: 

Will foreclosures rise from here?

We don't expect a significant rise in foreclosures anytime soon, and for three key reasons:

• Lending practices have improved significantly from the practices that preceded our nation's foreclosure crisis 15 years ago, so there just aren't that many bad loans out there. 
• Most homeowners right now are locked into a low interest rate and a low monthly mortgage payment. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association conducts a weekly survey designed to capture the demand for mortgages across the country. And according to the latest survey released on November 23rd, mortgage applications (for purchase loans, excluding "refis") decreased 41% compared to the same week in 2021. Note from the chart below, mortgage demand slipped considerably in the months of September and October.

How does this trend impact the Madison area real estate market? 

Well, up until just a few weeks ago, inventory was continuing to trend along historically low levels. But now that buyer demand has decreased, we are beginning to see inventory slowly grow again. And as inventory grows, days on market are beginning to slowly increase as some sellers become

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you hear “St. Vincent de Paul” or “St. Vinny’s”? If you immediately think of the thrift stores with the blue SVP logo, you’re not alone. They are a popular place to donate used clothing, furniture, and other items and find some incredible deals. They also provide employment opportunities for more than 260 people in Dane County alone!

While the thrift stores certainly are a recognizable feature of the Society of St. Vincent de Paul — Madison, this international nonprofit that began in Paris in the 1800s offers several other important services related to food, medicine, and housing to further its mission of “helping neighbors in need, primarily through person-to-person contact made by volunteer members.”

The pace of home-building in Dane County is actually quite slow when viewed over the arc of the last 20 years. Take a look at this chart which shows the number of housing starts in Dane County for every October since the year 2000. 

The impact of slow home construction

A low supply of new construction homes is one of the main reasons why we expect high prices and low inventory for many years to come. Here are 6 other local trends which we see driving the market in this direction: 

• New condominium construction has slowed to a near standstill, and is far below what is needed to satisfy the demand for condos in the Madison area. 
• Dane County foreclosures are occurring at an historically slow pace. 
• Many homeowners, who would otherwise

You could be waiting for a long time, and perhaps, many years. 

Why do we expect prices to remain elevated?

The big reason is consistently low supply.

And one huge factor driving low supply is our region's rapid population growth. Dane County is currently the fastest-growing region in the state, and according to a recent study by the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, that trend will continue. The study projects the county's population will grow by more than 200,000 residents by the year 2050.

And yet there's very little new supply in the pipeline to accommodate that growth.

Yes, Dane County has added hundreds of new housing developments over the last decade, but most of that new construction has been for apartments, not homes and

Recently a friend called us and asked for a referral to a trusted lender. Her daughter Emma, a first-time home buyer, was already talking to a mortgage lender. But Emma wasn't getting the time and the information that she needed to better understand the mortgage process.

So we referred Emma and her mom to Karen Wedvick from Wintrust Mortgage. And as it turned out, Karen's approach was exactly what Emma and her mom were looking for. Karen gave Emma a great introduction to the mortgage process and helped Emma map out all of her next steps. 

Emma's story is a common one. With so many lenders to choose from in the Madison area, sometimes it can take a little time to find the right fit. 

At Mad City Dream Homes, we're always available to refer you to

For our client Mason, it actually took 4 of us to get the job done. And the truth is, due to all of the challenges that we encountered along the way, it would have been difficult for any one of us to complete this sale on our own. 

Mason’s sale was a great example of how we value teamwork:

For you, our client, we're always customizing our approach as we draw upon the skills and expertise of our entire team. And for our team members, and fellow realtors, we're always here to lend a helping hand whenever they need our support.

Thank you Max, Ann, Shelley and Dan for helping Mason to get to the finish line. It was a true team effort!

Here's our latest Dane County condo update, which offers some good insight into our new and evolving market. Do you have questions about your condo's current market value? Please contact our team for a helpful consultation.

Dane County condo prices

The price per square foot jumped from $184 in October of 2021 to $209 in October of 2022. That's an increase of 14%. Through the first ten months of the year, condo prices were up 11%.

New condominium listings

One reason condo prices remain high is that new listings continue to enter the market at a slow pace. A total of 107 condo listings entered the market in October, which was the lowest October total in the last 20 years.

Active condo inventory

Housing inventory across the country