Madison, WI Real Estate Trends:

August, 2019

This report summarizes the latest market trends for single family homes in Madison, Wisconsin. All data comes from the South Central Wisconsin MLS. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current through the month of August, 2019

The Madison real estate market continues to trend very favorably for sellers of single family homes. Homes are selling quickly. Inventory remains limited. Prices are on the rise. Below is a snapshot from our August, 2019 report.

View our monthly Madison condo update here.

Madison Real Estate Market Summary: August, 2019

  • Madison home sales decreased by 1% in August and 6% year-to-date. 
  • Accepted offers were down 11% in August and down 6% year-to-date.
  • Expired listings are gradually increasing in 2019. 
  • The Madison single family listing expiration rate is slowly starting to increase in 2019.  
  • New listings continued to trend along low levels through the month of August.  
  • As of September 9th, 2019, 32% of all single family listings were under contract with an accepted offer. Only 1.7 months of supply are available in the Madison single family home market. This low number demonstrates a good market for sellers, especially for houses priced under $300,000. The market for higher priced homes is a little more challenging for sellers in 2019. 
  • The average days on market through the month of August remained very low by historical standards.
  • Madison home prices are up through the month of August. The price per square foot is up 5% from last year and currently at a record high level. The average price is also at an all-time high and is up 6%. 
  • Competing offers through May are up from 40% in 2018 to 42% in 2019.  
  • Cash offers have decreased slightly in 2019. 

Our full reports follow:

Madison WI Home Sales - August, 2019

Madison home sales decreased by 1% in the month of August

madison home sales

Year-to-date, a total of 1,813 Madison single family home listings sold via the MLS, which was down 6% from the number of homes sold in 2018. 

madison home sales aug 2019 year to date

On an annual basis, a total of 2,665 Madison single family listings sold in 2018, just under the 2,669 listings sold in 2017. 

This graph shows the seasonality of the market. Each bar on this graph represents a month of closings from the 2018 calendar year. As the graph shows, home sales follow a very predictable, seasonal pattern. Closings peak in the middle of the year after bottoming out in January and February. 

Madison Home Sales: January, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison home sale totals for every time period dating back to January, 2000. Note: Green indicates a sales increase from the same time period of the previous year. Red indicates a sales decrease. 

historical madison wi home sales aug 2019

Madison Single Family Accepted Offers - August, 2019

Accepted offers (i.e. "pending home sales") provide a forward-looking view of the market. When accepted offers rise, that's an indication that closings (i.e. home sales) will increase in the months ahead. A total of 178 Madison single family home listings received accepted offers in the month of August, down from the 199 accepted offers in August of 2018. Low inventory and a lack of new construction are limiting sales contracts in 2019.  

madison mls accepted offers aug 2019

A total of 1,852 Madison single family listings received accepted offers year-to-date through the month of August, down 6% from the 1,975 accepted offers through August of 2018.   

year to date madison single family accepted offers

A total of 2,552 single family home listings received accepted offers in 2018. This was the fifth highest total on record for the Madison single family home market. 

 Accepted Offers Madison Homes 2018

This graph shows the number of Madison accepted offers by week for the 2018 calendar year. This is a great graph for sellers to review prior to choosing a list date. As the graph makes clear, accepted offer activity picks up significantly by February. Sellers who want to time the market just right should have their home on the market by March 1st rather than wait until May or June.

This graph shows accepted offers by month for the 2018 calendar year. March, April, May and June had the highest levels of buyer activity in 2018. 

Madison Single Family Accepted Offers: Jan, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison single family accepted offer totals for each time period dating back to January, 2000.  historical madison mls accepted offers aug 2019

Madison Expired Single Family Listings - August, 2019 

A total of 39 Madison single family home listings expired in the month of August, which was an increase over last year. We believe expired listings will continue to gradually rise in 2019. 

expired madison wi mls listings aug 2019

A total of 193 Madison single family home listings expired year-to-date through the month of August, which was an increase over the 142 expired listings recorded through August of 2018. 

expired madison mls listings aug 2019 ytd

A total of 293 Madison single family home listings expired in 2018, which was the lowest expired listing total going back to the year 2000. 

 

Madison Expired Single Family Listings: Jan, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison expired listing totals for each time period dating back to January, 2000. As the table below shows, expired listings have been on a downward trend for the last several years, but more recently have gradually started to increase.  

historical madison mls expired listings aug 2019

Madison Single Family Expiration Rate - August, 2019

A listing can either "sell" or "expire". The listing expiration rate represents the percentage of listings that expire. Low expiration rates are seen in strong sellers' markets. High expiration rates are seen in strong buyers' markets. 

The Madison single family listing expiration rate in the month of August was 13%. As the graph below shows, this was low when compared to most other years dating back to the year 2000. 

expiration rate madison single family homes aug 2019

The year-to-date listing expiration rate through the month of August was 10%. This was the highest rate through the month of August over the last 3 years. 

expiration madison wi mls aug 2019 year to date

The annual listing expiration rate in 2018 was 10%, which was the lowest rate on record for the Madison single family home market. 

Madison Single Family Expiration Rate: Jan, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual single family listing expiration rate for every time period dating back to January, 2000. Expiration rates have been trending higher each of the last 12 months. 

historical madison mls expiration rate aug 2019

Madison Single Family New Listings - August, 2019

A total of 259 single family listings entered the Madison real estate market in the month of August - which was relatively low by historical standards.    

new madison wi mls listings aug 2019

Year-to-date, a total of 2,180 new single family home listings entered the Madison real estate market through the month of August. This was the lowest year-to-date total since 2012. 

new madison wi mls listings aug 2019 ytd

A total of 2,822 new listings entered the Madison real estate market in 2018. This annual total represented a 4% decrease from the 2,954 new listings that entered the market in 2017. New listings have been entering the market at subdued levels each of the last 10 years.

This graph shows the number of new listings by week for the 2018 calendar year. As the graph below shows, new listing activity grows very quickly after the 1st of the year. Based on this information, it's a smart play for buyers to be searching for homes in January and February before the Spring market heats up. 

This graph shows the number of new MLS listings by month in calendar year 2018. 

Madison Single Family New Listings: Jan, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the number of new listings by month dating back to January, 2000.  

historical new madison mls listings aug 2019.

Madison Single Family Home Months of Supply - 9/9/2019

The table below paints a good picture of the single family home real estate market in Madison. The price ranges highlighted in yellow are most advantageous to sellers. Taking accepted offers into account, all of the price ranges under $300,000 have 1.2 or fewer months of inventory (see the column on the far right). Overall, 32% of all Madison single family home listings have an accepted offer. There are 1.7 months of inventory available in the Madison single family market as of September 9th, 2019.

madison single family home supply september 2019

The Madison single family home market has had less than 2 months of supply since December 2015. 

historical madison home inventory sept 2019

This graph shows how active listings have changed from July of 2016 to July of 2019. Active listings are beginning to rise again in Madison. 

Historical Madison Home Listings July 2019

This graph shows the percent of single family home listings with accepted offers dating back to October, 2015. Each bar on the graph represents a snapshot taken mid-month. The percent of listings under contract in September of 2019 was 32% - which was the same percentage under contract as last September.  percent under contract madison single family homes sept 2019

Madison WI Homes - Days on Market - August, 2019

The days on market for a sold listing is the number of days from the date of listing until the date of the accepted offer. The days on market for Madison homes are trending much lower than they have in the past. The average days on market for the month of August was only 21 days, which was the third lowest on record. 

days on market madison wi homes aug 2019

Year-to-date, the average Madison days on market through the month of August was only 26 days. As the graph below shows, this was the second lowest year-to-date average on record.  

madison wi mls days on market aug 2019 ytd

The average days on market for all of 2018 was only 26 days. This annual average was the lowest on record.

Madison Single Family Days on Market: Jan, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the average days on market by month dating back to January, 2000. The Madison days on market statistic has been on a downward path since 2012. The table also shows the seasonality of the market. Days on market tend to be lowest during the summer months and highest during the winter months.

historical madison days on market aug 2019

Madison WI Home Prices - August, 2019

The price per square foot is the best statistic we have for measuring home values. The graph below shows the annual Madison single family home price per square foot for every year spanning the year 2000 to 2018. As the graph shows, Madison home prices have risen 6 straight years. Home values in 2018 were the highest on record for the city of Madison.  

madison wi 2018 home prices

In August of 2019, the average price per square foot was $175 - up from $163 last year. As the graph below shows this was the highest average for any month of August on record. 

On a year-to-date basis in 2019, the average price per square foot through the month of August was $170, which was a new record high for the Madison single family home market - and up 5% from last year.  

madison year to date home prices 2019

Historical Price per Square Foot - August, 2019

This table shows the price per square foot year-over-year increase/decrease for every month dating back to January, 2000. Year-to-date home prices are up by 5%. 

historica madison home prices august 2019

Madison Average Home Price - August, 2019

The average single family home sales price in the month of August was $334,014, which was the highest on record and up 4% from last year.

madison wi mls home price aug 2019

Year-to-date, the average Madison sales price was $329,175. This is a record high for the Madison single family home market and up 6% from last year. 

madison wi mls home prices aug 2019 ytd

The average single family sales price for all of 2018 was $307,228. This annual average was the highest on record. The previous peak year for Madison home prices was 2007, when the average was $254,730.

Madison Home Prices: January, 2000 - August, 2019

This table shows the percent increase/decrease for every month dating back to January, 2000. As the green data points show, Madison home prices have been trending higher since 2013. Prices increased in 11 of 12 months in 2018 and started the year off higher in 2019. 

historical madison mls home prices aug 2019

Madison Homes - % with Competing Offers (May, 2019)

For listings that receive accepted offers, this statistic measures the percent that receive written offers from 2 or more competing parties. As the graph below displays, the months of March, April and May have the highest percentage of competing offers. Bidding wars and escalating prices are most prevalent during the Spring. 

In the month of May, the percent of listings with competing offers increased from 40% in May of 2018 to 49% to May of 2019. 

Madison WI Competing Offers May 2019

Single Family Competing Offers by Price Range: Jan-May, 2019

This table shows the percent of accepted offers that involve 2 or more competing buyers (see the far right column). The data shows single family home listings priced under $350,000 tend to be the most competitive. Overall, 42% of all accepted offers have involved competition from multiple buyers. This is up from 40% in 2018. 

Madison Home Competing Offers May 2019

Madison Homes - Cash Offers - Jan through June, 2019

Through the month of June, 9% of all Madison Single Family home sales were purchased with cash. Note, cash offers are most prevalent at the low end and high end of the market. 

Madison WI Cash Offers for Single Family Homes June 2019

This graph shows the annual percentage of cash offers for every year spanning from 2000 to 2018. Note, cash offers are much more prevalent in the condo market. 

About the Author

Dan Miller has been helping clients buy and sell homes and condos since 2007. Please feel free to contact Dan with any questions you have about the Madison real estate market or any other market in the South Central Wisconsin area. 

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