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Madison WI Real Estate Market Trends & Updates: Mad City Dream Homes Blog

There are currently 39 blog entries related to this category.

Each year the Madison real estate market slows down in September due to the Labor Day holiday and the back-to-school rush. We see this slow-down in both the single family home and condo markets. As an example, see the graph below which shows the number of accepted offers in the Madison condo market for each month in 2017. Notice how market activity dipped significantly in September and then bounced higher in October. This is a pretty typical pattern for our market. 

 

As expected, this pattern is repeating itself in 2018. The first half of September was a slow time for real estate, but now we're seeing market activity pick up again as we approach the month of October. 

October = Opportunity for Sellers

If you have a home to sell, you now know

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Late last year we published our predictions for the 2018 real estate market. So far 2018 is playing out largely as expected. Here's our quick overview of this year's predicted and actual trends.

Prediction: Madison condo prices will rise by at least 8 percent. 

Actual: The average Madison condo price is up by 9 percent through the first 7 months of the year; the price per square foot is up by 7 percent. 

 

Prediction: Madison home prices will rise by at least 5 percent. 

Actual: Both the average price and the price per square foot are up by 4 percent through the first 7 months of the year. 

 

Prediction: New home construction will remain low. 

Actual: Housing starts remain low by historical standards. Building permits are up by

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We've just completed our mid-year home and condo updates, and the latest numbers show the seller's market is alive and well in the city of Madison. Here's our quick overview of the latest trends in the Madison real estate market. 

The Madison condo market

Madison condo supply is historically low and driving prices higher. Take a look at the graph below, which shows how the number of available condo listings has changed from July, 2015 to July, 2018. Amazingly, active condo listings have decreased by 48% over the last 3 years. 

 

Over the same 3-year stretch condo supply has dipped to well below 2 months of inventory. This historically low number is indicative of a very strong seller's market. 

 

Condos are also selling much more quickly

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We recently wrote how the city of Madison has become a perpetual seller's market. Our latest single family home and condo reports show the month of May was no exception. Here's a short summary of the latest market trends in Madison.

Home and condo inventory

The Madison single family home market has had less than 2 months of supply since December of 2015. Right now there are only 1.2 months of inventory in the city, which is down from 1.4 months from the same time last year.  

 

Supply is also very low in the local condo market. Right now there are only 1.3 months of inventory available for sale in the Madison condo market, which is down from 1.5 months in June of 2017. 

 

New MLS listings

New MLS listings are in short supply in 2018 -

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As we approach the warmer summer months the Madison real estate market shifts from "over-heated" to "balanced". The graph below, which shows accepted offers by month, puts this shift into perspective. As the graph shows, buyer activity decreases in June, a typical pattern for our market.  

 

Opportunities for summertime buyers

Because the market shifts in June, the summertime is a good market for opportunistic buyers. A decent supply of new listings will hit the market in June, but competing offers and bidding wars will moderate. So right now is the time for buyers to stay engaged with their search and to act quickly when an appealing property is listed for sale. With a good supply of new listings, and fewer competing buyers, the summer market

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We just put the finishing touches on our latest single family home and condo reports, and as expected, rising prices and low inventory continue to be the two major themes in this year's real estate market. But how long can this sellers market in Madison last? We expect the market to favor sellers for a long time, and we explain why below. 

 

Why Madison is a long-term sellers market

The short and simple answer is the Madison area has many more people wanting to buy than owners willing to sell. We know this from our day-to-day work in the field, and our review of local market data confirms this is much more than a hunch. Here are 3 reasons why we know the city of Madison has many more buyers than sellers.

#1: Competing offers are at an all-time

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This year is proving to be another hot seller's market for owners of single family homes and condos in the Madison area. Here's our latest update on how inventory, prices, and other key measures are performing though March and April of 2018. 

April 2018 Inventory

Condo supply continues to run lower and lower in the city of Madison. This graph shows inventory is now at a new low, having decreased from 2.4 months in April of 2016, to 1.3 months if April of 2017, to only 1 month in April of 2018. 

 

Single family home supply is even lower, having decreased from 1.3 months to only .8 months over the last two years. 

 

March New Listings

We expect persistently low inventory throughout all of 2018. New condo listings were a scarce

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We've written a lot about the low levels of inventory in the Madison real estate market. Here's another look at housing supply from a slightly different angle, which shows the inventory crunch in Madison is a much bigger deal than most people realize. 

Madison Single Family Home Supply

Each month we take a few different snapshots of the housing supply in Madison. We've been doing this for a few years now, so we've built up some good historical data for our reports. This first snapshot shows the total number of single family home listings in March 2016, March 2017, and March 2018. Here's how total listings have trended in Madison over this two-year stretch. 

 

From March 2016 to March 2018, the total number of single family home listings

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Your property could be worth much more than you ever imagined. Even though interest rates have changed, Madison home and condo prices keep rising in 2018. Here's our summary of the latest trends in the Madison area real estate market.

Prices

Madison home prices rose to $154 per square foot through the month of February. This was a record high for our market and a 9% increase from last year. 

 

Madison condo prices also rose to record highs through the month of February.  

 

Inventory

Prices are rising because demand is strong and housing is in short supply. In February and March, there were only .7 months of single family home inventory in Madison - a rock bottom low for our market. 

Condo supply is also very low. Right now

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As of this writing, the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at about 4.5% (for a real-time update on mortgage rates, click this link). This is a jump up from where the rate has been over the last several years, but still very low by historical standards.

 

How will higher mortgage rates impact the Madison real estate market? 

In the short-term, higher mortgage rates are creating some uncertainty, especially for buyers whose financing budget is tight. In the long-term, we believe higher rates will prove to have a positive impact on the market. Madison area real estate prices have been rising at an unsustainable pace, and higher rates are needed to temper that growth.  

Do you have questions about how higher rates will affect your purchase

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