The 2018 real estate market: actual versus predicted trends

Posted by Dan Miller, REALTOR on Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018 at 5:44am.

Late last year we published our predictions for the 2018 real estate market. So far 2018 is playing out largely as expected. Here's our quick overview of this year's predicted and actual trends.

Prediction: Madison condo prices will rise by at least 8 percent. 

Actual: The average Madison condo price is up by 9 percent through the first 7 months of the year; the price per square foot is up by 7 percent. 

Madison Condo Prices July 2018

Prediction: Madison home prices will rise by at least 5 percent. 

Actual: Both the average price and the price per square foot are up by 4 percent through the first 7 months of the year. 

Madison Single Family Prices July 2018

Prediction: New home construction will remain low. 

Actual: Housing starts remain low by historical standards. Building permits are up by only 2 percent from last year. 

Dane County Housing Starts July 2018

Prediction: Home and condo supply will remain historically low. 

Actual: Madison currently has only 1.5 months of single family home supply.  

historical madison home supply aug 2018

Condo inventory is also very low. The local condo market has only 1.7 months of supply.   

Madison WI Condo Inventory Aug 2018

Prediction: Foreclosure and short sale listings will be in short supply. 

Actual: Although foreclosures are increasing locally, they remain low by historical standards. 

Madison Area Foreclosures July 2018

Prediction: Home and condo sales will plateau. 

Actual: Madison home sales are up by only 1% through the month of July. Sales are being restrained by low supply. 

Madison WI Home Sales July 2018 

Madison condo sales are lower by 2%. 

Madison Condo Sold Listings July 2018

Prediction: Demand for real estate will remain very strong. 

Actual: There remains a large pent up demand for real estate. How do we know this? Very few listings are expiring in Madison, which is an indication of a market that has more buyers than sellers. Right now expired single family home listings are at the lowest levels on record. 

Expired Madison Single Family Listings July 2018

Expired condo listings are at historically low levels, too. 

 Expired Madison Condos July 2018

Prediction: Income properties will be hot commodities in 2018. 

Actual: Multifamily properties are in high demand. Right now there are only 2.2 months of supply in local income property market. 

Dane County Income Property Supply Aug 2018

Our expectations for the rest of 2018

We expect the high demand/low supply market to continue throughout all of 2018; however, the fall and winter months will offer buyers some good opportunities to purchase with less competition from other buyers. Every market and every season is unique, so reach out to your favorite Mad City Dream Homes agent when you have questions about your market and your real estate goals. We're here to consult with you in 2018 and in the years ahead. 

This article is published courtesy of:
Dan Miller, REALTOR
Mad City Dream Homes & RE/MAX Preferred
610 Junction Road #205, Madison, WI, 53717

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